Trump‑Venezuela Conflict Odds Top 50% In Betting Markets — Time To Buy Cheap Oil?
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Betting markets are increasingly assigning a non-trivial probability that the U.S. could launch a military operation in Venezuela sooner than many investors expect, even as oil prices continue to trade as if geopolitical risk in Latin America is negligible.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 29% chance that the U.S. begins a military engagement with Venezuela by Jan. 15, 2026, rising to 40% by Jan. 31, and reaching 52% by March 31, 2026.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 29% chance that the U.S. begins a military engagement with Venezuela by Jan. 15, 2026, rising to 40% by Jan. 31, and reaching 52% by March 31, 2026.
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This analysis was generated using Pulse AI, Glideslope's proprietary AI engine designed to interpret market sentiment and economic signals. Results are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice.
